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Tri Nations
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3N Preview: All Blacks v Wallabies III
Wednesday, September 16
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The All Blacks host the Wallabies in the final Tri-Nations Test of 2009 in Wellington on Saturday.
The match is very much like a World Cup third/fourth place play-off with the Springboks already crowned new Tri-Nations champions after their 32-29 victory over former champions New Zealand last weekend.
Both teams have had horrid Tri-Nations campaigns but it is the mighty All Blacks who have been hit the hardest. They’ve suffered three successive defeats to South Africa for the first time since 1949 and two consecutive home losses to them for the first time since 1937. In doing so, they’ve relinquished the Tri-Nations title for the first time in five years as well as the No 1 world ranking.
Having suffered four losses already with six Tests remaining in the year, the troubled All Blacks are in danger of performing worse than their nightmare years of 1998 and 1949 when they suffered five and six defeats respectively.
With such a drastic fall from grace, one has to wonder how Richie McCaw and his team are going to perform in front of their disappointed fans against a Wallaby side fresh off a huge win over the all-conquering Boks.
The All Blacks have a good record against the Wallabies, but not in Wellington, where Saturday’s match will be contested. Quite the opposite in fact. It is the Aussies who have won four of the last six encounters against the Kiwis in the nations’ capital.
Include the fact that Australia will become only the seventh nation to reach 500 Tests in a battle to avoid finishing the Tri-Nations as wooden spooners and the initially considered dead rubber match suddenly has significant importance for both nations.
Rain is forecast for Saturday so it will essentially be a tactical, forwards-orientated battle. The All Blacks had the upper hand at scrum time in the previous encounter in Sydney, which the Kiwis won 19-18 to retain the Bledisloe Cup.
The Wallabies, however, have improved dramatically in the set piece since then. Benn Alexander and Tatafu Polota-Nau have since unseated Al Baxter and Stephen Moore, while Neemia Tialata has been preferred to Owen Franks, so it will be a whole new ball in the scrums on Saturday.
The All Blacks’ lineout play has been so atrocious lately that legendary All Black captain Sean Fitzpatrick labelled it as ‘disgraceful’, so the Wallabies ought to dominate this facet.
While the battle at the breakdown will be as important as ever the most crucial aspect of Saturday’s clash will be the tactical kicking battle.
Since the Dan Carter-Stephen Donald 10-12 combination blew up in Graham Henry’s face last weekend, the Kiwi mentor has shifted Ma’a Nonu to inside centre and brought Isa Toeava in at outside centre.
It basically leaves Carter and scrumhalf Jimmy Cowan with the responsibility of putting the Blacks deep inside Wallaby territory, while the Aussies have Will Genia, Matt Giteau and Berrick Barnes at their disposal. Barnes in particular, is an excellent kicker out of hand.
New Zealand and Australia are two proud nations and they’ll both want to win back some respect with a comprehensive victory over the other on Saturday. It will definitely be a Test worth watching.
Key Battle: Dan Carter vs. Matt Giteau. With the emphasis on territorial advantage, it could come down to which team’s flyhalf dictates with the boot.
Prediction: New Zealand seem down and out but I for one will never write an All Black team off, especially a wounded one. Australia have everything but home ground advantage going for them, but I’m backing the All Blacks to bounce back with a narrow win. All Blacks by 6.
GreatOdds Latest Prices (correct at time of going to press): All Blacks 1.60, Wallabies 2.60 and draw 15.00
*What those odds mean to display is the total payout (including the return of your stake) that you will receive for every Rand put down on a winning bet. If you bet R1 on All Blacks, you will receive R1.60 back. R1 on the Wallabies will give you R2.60 (making the All Blacks favourites) and R1 on the draw pays R15.00
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19 Sep 09 |
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My gut feeling however is that the Aussies will take this, i hope i am wrong!
This is for all the games i recently, as well as in the past, have had to listen to those thick biased Aussie commentators during a game, there is not much more on this planet that winds me up the way they do!!
COME ON BOKKE!! oh hang on, we've already won hahaha, come on Blacks, please round off a perfect 3Nations by giving the Aus's some dark oak spoon
as a springbok theres a first tme for everything so GO ALL BLACKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Go ABs!!
The Wallabies do well in Wellington AND they have far more consistency with their squad line up at the moment. As much as it irks me to say it I think they'll win it.
However in saying that I would love to see Tialata crush Gitteau in the process...might shut him up a bit
Or Brad Thorn!
Also, I think they should get the upper hand at the set pieces and I am sure that this week the ABs will get pinged if they dive over the rucks as they did against us. Pokock and Elsom should be able to stand their man as I think the reason the Blacks have been dominating the Aussies is that their backrow in particular have been dominating. Genia is also a vast improvement over Burgess.
That said, I won't underestimate how much the Blacks are hurting and that and their ability to play a full 80 every game might be enough to get them home.
Put 50 past those Kangaroo crims!
I'm undecided on this one. On the one hand I would love to see the Aussies take a pounding, just to bring them down to earth after their win over the Boks, especially that damn Giteau, he's so damn (edited)y!
However, I have no love for Henry whatsoever, because he's a douchè...so I would also like to see him get canned or at least another humiliating press confrence, good times!
team!!! The ABs to win by 10!!
However, that said, I think Aus at the moment has more momentum and belief in themselves than the ABs and will give them the game, probably very close. but still Aus the winners.
COME ON ALL BLACKS FASI THOSE KEFES!!!!!!!!!!
The fact that the All Blacks chocked again last week and are playing in front of a home crowd will make them fiery this weekend. They will really want this win.
With all that said, Wallabies to win by 5.
Go AB's!
Cant wait, all blacks to take it by 5.
Fighting not to get a wooden spoon can be violent....
That is basically the Springboks game plan anyway, just pressure the other team and wait for them to (edited) up. Smit said that himself. It is a game plan that has worked in all but one game this year, the only expection being last week wen they were compenhisively beaten by the wallabies. The Springboks pressured, but the Wallabies played some good rugby and when the pressure wasn't working they had no back up plan.
So when i say choke i meant it in this context - the All Blacks knew the Springboks game plan, they saw the wallabies game and knew that if they could handle the pressure and play to their ability they could come away with the win, but they (edited) it again.
Anyway i hope the All Blacks lose and get rid of Henry. the guy is over the hill.
I'm over the moon that we won the Lions series and 3N but it is something we need to work on on the end of year tours and the following year.
Anyone agree/disagree?
Still, we've done all there was to do and achieved as a nation more than any other nation in rugby history.
Looking at our side one can't help feel that this is just the start of our dominance....well I hope so anyway.
Result...hhmmmm.......Wallabies by 5.
For some reason, the only team we manage to keep the intensity up for the whole 80 is against England. Go figure. I think this is a mental thing and something PdV and John should work on.
But I do agree, I blame it mostly on us not being able to use our bench, because that's where the QUOTA sits.
Kiwijimmy, still feeling bitter over those three losses? I think you are, you need to vent your frustration somehow I guess.
GO Chokers!!!!!!
World Cup, Tri-Nations, Freedom Cup, Mandela Shield and a big Arse Lion Skin. Well done Boys
cant be older then 13, mudslinging like a schoolboy !!!!!
please don't say you are speaking for the majority...just yourself.
I'd have to say my blood is a particularly dark shade of green but I will be glued on Sat. On who will win and who deserves it...whoever brings the most ticker will win...could go either way, they are both proud nations so I cetainly don't wish either any ill will.
BDAussie, yes you played well in Bris. we were just not able to raise our intensity to what Oz brought in that game for whatever reason. I think the Oz forwards, particularly the front row are getting ahead of themselves. Robinson has throughout the tri nations troubled John Smith greatly, but against Wood(edited) who is better than Robinson he has gone very well. Also I think Deans will go for the lineout...that is what I will find interesting. I think the AB lineout will go much better against Oz.
...this Toeava, nonu story will be fascinating to watch...as always...gona be a cracker
The ABs are currently being blasted by their rugby fans and media alike. I like this. Expect a huge backlash by the Blacks, something like 35 - 16.
Would like too see Rodney Soeilo back.
Blood is always green, but this saturday it will be a very dark green. Go All Blacks!
normally i would not be caught dead saying this but this is an exception GO ALL BLACKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!