More egg for gullible global warmers
September 19, 2013, 16:55:17
Ex Business Day
IN THIS column last Thursday (September 12) I made mention of the astonishing expansion of the Arctic sea ice — 60% in a year.
I also referred to a leak out of that vast bureaucracy called the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has since become a flood. I should add that the IPCC’s pronouncements are used everywhere to justify huge fossil fuel taxes and subsidies for acres of renewable energy.
The UK Mail on Sunday (September 15) revealed that the latest IPCC report concedes that the world has warmed at half the rate it predicted when it issued its 2007 report.
It also says its computers probably exaggerated the effect of carbon on world temperatures.
IPCC scientists cannot explain why world temperatures haven’t increased significantly since 1997. They admit — now — that many parts of the world were as warm as they are currently between AD950 and 1250, when there weren’t many people and carbon dioxide levels were insignificant. They cannot explain the expansion of Arctic sea ice, and their prediction that hurricanes would become more intense has disappeared from the report.
It must be really galling to have to say sorry. Of course, the IPCC will do no such thing. In the face of its own evidence it still says the world will warm catastrophically, there will be rises in sea levels and the Arctic ice cap will disappear. It adds it is "extremely likely" that humans caused more than half the temperature rises between 1951 and 2010; in 2007 it claimed only that it was very confident. As Georgia Institute of Technology head of climate science Prof Judith Curry observes: "This is incomprehensible to me."
The stage is now set for a first-rate international row. The IPCC occupies a colossal head office in Geneva. It employs thousands of scientists and administrators. In other words, it costs a fortune to run and maintain. Many of the governments that are asked to supply the cash will now look askance at the work it has been doing and, more importantly, the conclusions it has drawn. Careers and jobs will be at stake.
What is unarguable is that the gap between the IPCC’s predictions and reality is widening.
Starting next Monday, 40 of the 240 authors of the new report will meet representatives of many of the 195 governments that fund the IPCC. More than 1,800 questions have been tabled, and major revisions are being demanded.
One of the authors, Oxford University’s director of the Climate Research Network, Prof Myles Allen, told the Mail: "The idea of producing a document of near-biblical infallibility is a misrepresentation of how science works, and we need to look very carefully about what the IPCC does in future."
This latest information needs to be examined very closely by opinion makers in this country. Canada’s Financial Post (September 16) argues that the emergence of new data will rock the foundations of mainstream climatology. "This is obviously no time for entering into costly and permanent climate policy commitments based on failed model forecasts. The real message of the science is: hold on a bit longer, information is coming soon that could radically change our understanding of this issue."
The awkward problem for those who have wholeheartedly embraced the dire predictions of forthcoming global climate disaster is that the models used by IPCC’s scientists predict one thing; the data show another.
Those who are scoffingly called denialists or flat earthers (like me) unfortunately possess a view that coincides with real-world observations. The IPCC is simply incapable of being objective about this. You can’t really blame it — it has bought into its own propaganda.
As for that carbon tax the Treasury wants to impose, it really had better stop right now and take a deep breath. If it is desperately looking for ways to add new taxes, this one isn’t going to fly.
Treasury deputy director-general Ismail Momoniat is a perfectly nice and sincere man, but on this issue he is misinformed. Right now, waiting is incontrovertibly the best policy, for as much as five years if need be.
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