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15. Lambie 14. Jordaan 13. Taute 12. Serfontein 11. JJ.Engelbrecht 10. Goosen 9. Hougaard 1. Kitshoff 2. Chiliboy(c) 3. Coenie 4. Etzebeth 5. Steph du Toit 6. Kolisi 7. Elstadt 8. Coetzee 16. Reinach 17. Jantjies 18. Rhule 19. M.v/d Merwe 20. Malherbe 21. Fourie 22. Willemse 23. CJ Stander

 If their was an under 23 team, most of the players would make it on current form and not injured. 

A few of these players are over 23.

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However young exciting prospects are a dime a dozen. Here today and gone tomorrow.

The vast majority of young players will not make it at the open bok division. Some will even flounder in Super XV level after a season or two. This is why their is allways an exiting new prospect around the corner.

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Either an older player regains top form, or a new younger player has a good first season, or is more consistent in their 2nd year.

Or a new young player enters the scene and the whole sideshow starts again- a bit like marketing a new product. A new hope or the next great dope.

The better a player the more time is spent on video analysis to identify weaknesses. Even Joost Van Der Westhuizen became less effective after his first 2 years as teams started to work him out at the rucks.

It is no co-incidence that Hougaard gets more clearance kicks charged down than any international scrum half.

It is a weakness that opposition teams try exploit. Hougaard is in many ways like Joost, he is excellant at sniping runs around the rucks, and getting his forwards on the front foot.

So teams harass him at the rucks to put him off his game.

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When players play in the Super XV and at bok level suddenly their weaknesses become apparent, and their strengths not so strong.  The Speed and pressure and quality of the opposition makes things much tougher

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Some one like Reinach looks great, but next year a new young player could upsurp him as the form young scrumhalf at the Sharks, or national level. 

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JJ.Engelbrecht entered the scene as a new prospect as the season started, and it seems that the Bulls are going to get rid of him- rumoured he is going to be going to the kings.

I doubt he will have much of a bok career. Someone like Rhule has allready surpassed him by getting an achievement like top curry cup try scorer.

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Lambie is out of position. He is going to be playing flyhalf for the Sharks and is the incumbent bok flyhalf, until or if Goosen can be meet the physical demands of the game. 

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Jordaan is out of position with Taute, who is soon going to find himself as a specialist fullback at SuperXV and bok level. It is only Meyers Bull Loyalty that is keeping Taute out of the game at fullback. Taute is Likely to get a run against Scotland in his favoured position, but off the bench. He is going to have to make the most of his oppertunities to make the number 15 position his own.

Most of Jordaans experience is at center(inside and outside), and even flyhalf.  If anything in his career he may find himself getting moved closer to the action rather than on the wing. 

Next year he will be outside Frans Steyn and Lambie, and he will have a whole season to prove himself as the form outside center in South Africa. Like many others I believe he is our top outside center. Although in time perhaps he will move to insider center.

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Serfontein showed lots of potential to get world U21 player of the year. Next year will be the next level- the SuperXV. If he can prove himself to amongst the top five inside centres, or higher then he will get a call up to see if he can again take the next step- open age group boks.  At this stage do we know what his weaknesses are? Can he pass, is he a play maker or just another player that has the potential to maybe reach the level of Jean Devilliers- good runner.

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Goosen- Hopefully he can make the physical demands of the game, we need him. He has the potential to be the best flyhalf we have had in the pro era. Much better natural talent than Lambie.

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Hougaard- Good behind a winning pack that gives him clean possesion. Slow behind a losing or slow pack at the clean out. Kicks get charged down due to the slow clearance service. Good Impact player at scrum half, and it is not in the league of Pienaar as a specialist scrumhalf. Piennaar is a top 3 world scrum half.

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Coenie- He may never make it back into the game. His docter/medial specialist has told him to play tighthead because it does not hurt his neck. He can no longer play loosehead at such a young age. One of his first games as a tighthead and he hurts his back seriously to be ruled out of the game for another 4-6 months.

Another player that might not be up to the physical demands of the game. Lets hope not but he is not looking good. Many have proclaimed as a potential great. Although many young players are potential greats- this has to be proved to be earnt. The one side is that he is not scrumming correctly and therefore causing himself to be injured or make his neck and back supseptiable to injuries, or hopefully he has just been unlucky and his injurues will heal

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Other players are again the current top young players. But as above yound players pop up each year and they can surpass the best young players quickly, but remains to be seen if each can keep improving to be regulars in the open bok division

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There are some really serious issues that is left out of Saffex's young Springbok team and that in the main relates to the basis for suggesting a team as he did.   Reasearch in fact indicate that the average age of the Springbok team and bench is already low compared to other teams.   In the case the average team age is in fact 25 years  - taking into account that the average age of All Black players are 29,9 years.   In the case of the Springboks the average age of the forwards is 24,9 years - whilst those of the All Blacks is 32 years of age.

A further factor is the age of individual players.   The above study was based on the test team playing in the Championship and revealed that there were out of the 22 players  selected 1 player 31 years of age (Jean De Villiers), 1 player at 30 years (Liebenberg) and 6 players at 29 years of age.   The above 8 players are in fact not from an age perspective candidates for the 2015 WC.  Those 8 players would have to be replaced - preferably by 2013.

The main argument here is that due to the already relatively youthful team - the competition for positions should be essentially based on form of players and not necessarily on age.   What is really the issue here is that players will have to be selected based on performance and not on the perceived age criteria only.   The other aspect is physicality.   There are doubts about players like Oosthuizen ever be in the mix again due to injury problems and some question marks have also been raised about Goosen - although the former is serious and the latter really a smokescreen - since there is no evidence on the latter that indicates career-threatening injury.

The above relates to a basis for the discussion of future selection in individual positions - now lets look at the actual position on the ground - bearing in mind that you actually need at least 2 players to cover each position:-

Full Backs

There is no dount that at 29 Kirchner should be on the replacement shortlist.   He is really not a house on fire and performance-wise his age cannot be countered by peformance.   That leaves a gap for two players.   The most likely first choice competitor will be Taute.   Based omn 2012 form the potential second choice would be Ludick.  However, the real two candidates will only be clear after the 2013 Super series.

Wings

The present incumbents are Habana (29) and Pietersen (26).   Based on purely the age factor  Habana should  be out - but he is an exceptional talent and is likely to go on and play effectively until  2015. There are a substantial number of potential  back-up players that could make their name in 2013.   Those include Mvovo and Rhule, but there are other potential candidtes out of contention at present that could be added.  

Centers

These really are the most problematic positions from a team selection perspective

There  is no doubt that De Villiers (31) will probably be out by the next test series.  The other players who thus far played in the starting line up or from the bench are Francois Steyn, Olivier, De Jongh, Taute and Engelbrecht.  Two of the players mentioned have already effectively eliminated themselves from candidature and they are Taute (prefers selection at full back and is likely to play in that position for the Stormers) and Engelbrecht (under--performance on lower level).   Olivier is not really a serious contender at all. .

That leaves Steyn and De Jongh.   I will discuss the 12 position first and then 13.   There are in fact candidates that can fill anyone of the two positions.   In essence I think that candidates should be considered for 13 based on the situation as to selection of the no 12 position.

Position 12   

Most people think that Steyn is an automatic choice - but the question is - is he really the automatic choice?   Strictly based on his performanes in tests this year there are indeed question marks about him as well.   He tended to be a crashball player this year - with zero off-loading skills.  I still think he would play a better game outside a more enterprising flyhalf than Morne Steyn.   However, he will have to enhance his candidature by improving markedly in 2013.  I still hope he does so and I put Steyn (26) down as first choice - average performance in Super 15 in 2013 could still eliminate his candidature.  The issue relates to the second choice 12.   The second choice would to my mind come from either of the following:-

   *    Jordaan    -    he was very effective in that position in the Super Series final.   From studying his play in detail he is often playing much nearer to the forwards in maul situations than is normal with no 13 centers.  Performances in Super 15 and CC level indicates he could be the top choice in either 12 or 13 depending on whether Steyn makes the Grade at 12.

   *    Whitehead   - a very good player with an eye for line breaks - but slight deficiencies in  speed and off-loading could be a factor here.

     *    Serfonetin - brilliant in the Under 20 WC - but has not really played for the Bulls on higher level this year.  Problem is his Bulls contract.  The latter is a killer insofar as center development is concerned.   The list of failures include Sadie and Engelbrecht.   Serfontein was in fact the third choice no 12 of the Bulls and was effectively kept out of contention for 12 by Olivier and Venter - two very average players.   I hope Serfotein gets serious playing time in the 2013 Super Series.  If he does not he would be wise to get out of his Bulls contract and move on.  Under the circumstances not a serious contender at this stage.

     *    De Allende - his coach rates him very highly - but he has the potential to be a stronger candidate than people imagine.   He is physically very strong and is speedier than Steyn.  Insofar as line breaks are concerned - he is in some respects better than Steyn already - he off-loads well in tackle situations.   Could be the surprise packet next year.  He will be the top Stormers  candidate for replacement of De Villiers on Super Series  level next year.

No 13

Here really there is  problem.  The only 13 remaining from the squad this year is De Jongh.   In 2012 he had a very poor year insofar as performances are concerned.   He showed some flashes of potential in 2 of the 18 games he played in this year - namely in the Rebels game and in the CC final.  He is a good defender - but harmless in attacking play - too many negatives in that aspect of the game.   He will get the opportunity to play in that position in the test against the Scots and also in Super 13 next year.   Based on overall performances this year he is out of contention - with a very small chance of selection if he shows above-average performances in the forthcoming test and Super 15 next year.

That leaves the race for this position very open.   Based on Super 15 and CC performances this year - the only real candidate is Jordaan.   He was the standout player in that position this year.   The rest is not easy.   Ebersohn of the Cheetahs was the only 13 that shows some form in Super 15 this year - but he is not a serious candidate.   Other names mentioned are Pietersen - but he is a world class wing and an average center.  People may argue about that - but the results speak for themselves.   When he played at 13 for the Sgarks the overall results of the team was unfavourable ( they lost games in the early stages  when Pietersen was actually playing in that position).   However, when moved to wing he scored tries and became ten times the player he was at 13.  There is virtually no chance that Plumtree will repeat his 2012 experiment in the relevant regard.

That leaves a serious problem as to the two "vacancies" for 13 - if Jordaan is to play at 12.   This could potentially come from the following youngsters:   Howard, Du Plessis and Small-Smith.   Of the above only Du Plessis made more regular apperances for the WP CC games  and the other two players was basically used in the Under 21 teams.   What was interesting was that with Du Plessis at 13 - the WP backline was much more potent than it was with De Jongh in that position.   

On the whole the position is wide open and will depend on stand-out performances by all potential candidates in Super 15 next year.

Flyhalfs

The only real contenders are Goosen and Lambie.

Morne Steyn is playing a style of rugby that neutralizes back line play  and is really not a contender.  The much hyped - up Jantjies will get ample opportunities to play for the Stormers in that position.   In reality he has so many negatives in his play - effectively ignored by the media and was so poor in the Soweto test - that he is at this stage probably the fourth or fifth candidate for selection.  Hype won't help - he will have to be way above average in next years Super 15 to be even considered as a serious candidate.

Scrumhalf

Pienaar is at this stage the only real candidate.   With the serious dip in form of Hougaard - there is no other real contender.   Hougaard could improve in the 2013 Super Series and has a lot to prove.   If Hougaard does not improve - the other candidate could comne from Reinach, Groom, Pretorius and Vermaak.  It would be interesting to see what is produced by Super 15 next year. 

No 8

The players that was invovled this year was Spies and Vermeulen.   Spies to my mind is a wing that is not really a loosie.   Vermeulen is a very hard grinder - but not speedy at all.   II think Vermeulen should rather be be a contender for the number 7 jersey.   I think the Super 15 series will be significant - but think that the position will end up being filled by Coetzee and Botha

No 7 

Albers is the present occupant.   No doubt a hard grinder - but more of a tight forward than a loosie.  The other contenders are -

   *   Burger - has not played rugby for a year and there is no guarantee that he will reproduce what he did in the past.   Hope so - but he will have a lot to prove in Super 15.

  *   Vermeulen - a hard grinder - that would let no team down in any game.

 *    Elstadt - very similar in style to the other two players and will no doubt make his mark in 2013.

No real choice at this  stage - but the two required candidates are likely to come from the above four players.

No 6 

Louw is the only serious candidate at this stage.   There is a number of other contenders that could stake their claim next year in Super 15 next year.  Those include -

   *    Brussow - very disappointing and ineffective this year.   Very unlikely to make the grade.

   *    Fourie  - was really an eye-opener this year in CC and could stake a strong claim next year;

   *    Kolisi - started of in this position in Super 15 this year like a house on fire - but faded in the later games before injury.   His performances in 2013 will be watched by all to see whether he would be in contention.

No 5

Bekker   (29) is the real deal - but has injury problems and may fade out of contention.   If he is not  available then there are other contenders to be considered:-

    *    Kruger - a very average line-out player that is mobile - but with limitations - he is a Meyer favouite, but not necessrily a standout player.

   *     Bressler - same as Kruger.

   *    Du Toit - a really top class player - very mobile and effective in line-outs.   I think he would be the stand-out  partner for Etzebeth and will make the grade.   Watch him with interest in Super 15 next year.

 No 4   

The only serious contenders  are Etzebeth and Flip van der Merwe

 Props

Beast and Jannie Du Plessis are the serious two players in the team and will remain so next year.   Van der Linde and Steenkamp are jokes in bad tatse.   The future back up players would probably be Oosthuizen (if his career-threatening injuries can be solved), Kitshoff and Malherbe.   Ouside chances would be Van Rensburg, Cillers and Nel. 

Hookers 

Only two serious contenders.  Bismarck Du Plessis and Strauss 

If I was Meyer I would watch and analize the Super 15 performances in 2013 and then decide on the way forward insofar as team selection is concerned. 

Excellent summary Mike and little I can fault you on. The interesting question to me is when do these youngsters come on stream. I am hoping by 2014 they will be there in force. 2013 should as you say point the way.

Meyer has incredible talent to work with!! All he needs to do is boot out some of the asistant coaches who can go back to bulle land and add value there.

Beeno

I may have left out some players - but I think I civered most of the real possibilities.   Why do you display your dislike the Bulls by suggesting that the assitant coaching staff be snet back to them?   Loubscher - the Bulls are already known as the graveyard for centers - will his presence not make it even worse than at present?

I am seriously worried by the expected performance of the Bulls in 2013 Super 15.   They need some real strenghteening in certain positions - especially the props.   Their props are very poor - with Greying and Werner kruger in particular.   Their sizes are misleading - they are rubbish scrumagers.   Locks OK - but loosies questionable.   Spies is a show pony but not really a player a team can  regularly depend upon  throughout games.   Plays for 5 minutes and zero the oother 75,   I like Stander - but he will not be available.   Arno Botha and Liebenberg are classy - and may be better options.

Scrummies -  Vermaak (?) and Hougaard (????????????)

Centers -  really extremely problematic.  Venter is very average - but who else? 

I have to compliment you chaps. Excellent exposition of the new player cycle Sharkbok. Your views are very close to mine....youngsters come and go, some players , very few, stick and have long careers. Others move on to the Kings (hint hint).

And Mike this is a very sensible and comprehensive view of our talent. I'm actually looking forward to seeing Steph du Toit next year. He badly needed a year of strengthening, he was being knocked back in the collisions, but he may yet prove himself to be a partner for Eben.

We may yet find this team turnover is perfect for the next RWC and that NZ soldiers on with their current stars too long.

Now if only you were accurate Moz, it would help, for the only time Steph du Toit was knocked back, was when he was taken out by two players at once - FACT

More bullshit from Moz, surprise, surprise. Here we have a 19 year old standing 2m tall, weighing 118kg and he needs strengthening up - go figure

Saffex

At 19 Du Toit is as impressive as Etzebeth was atthat age.  I will lay a bet that at 21 he will be on par wih what Etzebeth is today.

I am vey interested in De Allende.   He did not play for a so-called ruigby school and was discovered by Zondagh virtually by accident.   Played a few games for WP under 21 - and then put on the bench in the WP CC squad.    Never heard about the guy and was surprised when WP broufgt him from the bench as wing in the Bulls game.   He scored a very good try.   I subseqquent games he remained on the bench and was brought on regularly as a wing.   The first time he played as a starter - was in the CC Final.   Did a god job in that game.

A really good ball player.   His coach made the remark that he himself will decide if he wants to play for the Springboks - in other words if he continues to play to capacity - he will be an automatic selection for the Springbok team.  I  think you need to keep an eye on him and see what he produces next year I certainly am going to follow his progress with interest.  

The only thing impressive about Steph du Toit this year, was the hype and his own massive over confidence. That was bliksemed out of him quite quickly. And fortunately this stick of a kid got mildly hurt before he was seriously hurt. At his age a year will make a big difference. There is no sense in annointing him at this stage, having seen nothing but him being over powered....but he has the pedigree and will mature into the physique that COULD make him a contender.

Mozart

Come now - there is no hype here.  Du Toit was a standout player in the Ubder 20  WC - and he played at 19 two games on Super level - something Etxebeth never achieved.  The latter was 20 when he was first selected on that level.

Du Toit had a muscular injury in the first game and was taken off early.  Unfortunately he was played in the second game before the injury was properly healed and was also taken off early.   For the rest of the season he played Under 21 rugby this year.   At 20 Du Toit - like Etzebeth will have his first year on Super 15 level.  

Not much in the media about him - so what is the hype you talk about?  

U20 is not even CC level Mike. He looked out of his depth in his first S15 game...so much was read into the few things this kid did on the field, not enough was read into his physical immaturity.

He may bloom into the player you think he is going to be....he may not. At this stage it's all on the come.

I actually agree with Mozart here. He has shown promise, but he wont be a bolter  like Ebzebeth who plays boks at 20 years old. He has talent, lets face that. So in a few years we will see how he does.

Maybe Im wrong as well. He wasnt great in the lineouts for the u/20's so they moved him to flank where he actually played very well.

Rugby 107

Where did you get that story about him being moved to flank from?   He was moved to flank because Liebenberg was injured and they did not have another option insofasr as loosie replacement was concerned.   Reason he is mobile.   By the way in Super 15 before injury he was better in line-outs than Juandre Kruger - although that does not mean anything really.  

Have you read what I wrote earlier - perhaps you did not undestand.   Etzebeth was 20 before he started playing for the Stormers in Super 15 and from there progressed to the Springboks -  Du Toit was 19 when he played his first match in Super 15 for the Sharks.   Bar the injury he would have been a refular in the Sharks team for the Super 15 in the last month of Super 15 this year.   The Sharks let Sykes go - because they have Bressler, Du Toit and the Marais Brothers as locks for Super 15.   He will be the one that they would prefer so lets wait and see what happens.

Clevermike,

They had to include Ruan Botha in the starting lineup to call the lineouts. he was also better than Steph du Toit in pure lock play. Even when Liebenberg returned they kept Du Toit at 7.

Not sure about him yet, he has got loads of talent, we can all agree on that, but i dont see him partnering Ebzebeth just yet. Like I said, I can be wrong. i will judge him after the next superrugby tournement. Playing test match rugby as a lock at the age of 20-21 is unheard of(Ebzebeth is a freak).

So what Im saying is that in  a few years(2-3) years he will be ready. Maybe he does very well in the next Superrugby tournement. I would be very happy to be wrong as Bekker is very injury prone and Im not a big fan of Kruger(he needs to harden the f...k up)