Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 06:22:15
We have all shouted and screamed about the likely outcome of the test tomorrow - we have the New Zealand suppoters on the Board saying the All Blacks will win - whilst the Springbok supporters obviously stating otherwise. I myself was probably more guilty than anyone else on this forum in that regard.
However, lets get realistic. The All Blacks are the world chaimps - they have a very experienced team with great players - the Springboks have a much younger team - very inexperienced in the most part. By all accounts the Springboks is a team in a rebuilding phase with some really promising youngsters coming through.
I have said elsewhere that the average age of the Springboks is 5 years younger than the All Blacks and the number of caps of Springboks is just over half of those of the All Blacks.
Statistically the match should be a walk in the park for the All Blacks. They should beat the Springboks easily - but is it going to happen? I am not sure about that one at all. I believe that based on statistics the All Blacks is likely to wiin - but I think it is not be a walk in the parl for them either. If this test was played next year - a rebuild Springbok team will be much more settled and they would indeed be the better team.
However, I am not sure whether the All Blacks will in fact win - and there are some very worried commentators around. If they win p it would eb a very symbolic victory for them - but it may be to their detriment in the longer run, since it would harm the re-building of a rather old team - where younger players are very few and far between.
Insofar as the team themselves is concerned - there can be no doubt that the All Blacks have a brilliant backline - by far the best in the world. Aaron Smith is the youngest player in the backline - with the ommssion of Savea - the rest of them are in fact 29+ uears of age. The replacements are not on the same level as the incumbents - bar SBW
The problem is really with their forwards. After all - the backline can only really fire when they get good balls. The locks and the number 8 are the younger players in the team. Reid is highly regarded world wide - but the forwards are in fact not performong as they should and that can be a problem for the team as a whole. The key here will be McCaw, Reid and Messam. If they can get the upper hand over the Springbok loosies - the battle will be won by the All Blacks. However, despite all the breastbeating to the contrary McCaw blows hot and cold and is not the player he used to be. In Dunedin Reid was the main penalty machine and Messam was nowhere to be seen. A repeat of that would be fatal for the All Blacks hope of winning.
All in all the All Blacks would have to go all out to win - they cannot keep hoping for lack of finishing off by the inexperienced Springboks to help them to victory. Despite my forecast to the contrary - based purely on patriotism and not logical assessment of the statistical records - the All Blacks should win the test. If they lose it may be the signal that the era of the older players are ending and rebuilding of the team would commence on a faster and more realistic basis.
Deep inside me I really hope that the All Blacks keep the core of the present team in their squad for the next WC. That would virtually assure a loss by them in 2015.. So I would not be too upset by an All Black viictory tomorrow, However, I obviously hope that against all odds and statistical data - the Springboks does win.