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2542 Topic: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
clevermike

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Posts: 10328
Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 06:22:15

We have all shouted and screamed about the likely outcome of the test tomorrow - we have the New Zealand suppoters on the Board saying the All Blacks will win - whilst the Springbok supporters obviously stating otherwise.   I myself was probably more guilty than anyone else on this forum in that regard.

However, lets get realistic.   The All Blacks are the world chaimps - they have a very experienced team with great players - the Springboks have a much younger team - very inexperienced in the most part.   By all accounts the Springboks is a team in a rebuilding phase with some really promising youngsters coming through.

I have said elsewhere that the average age of the Springboks is 5 years younger than the All Blacks and the number of caps of Springboks is just over half of those of the All Blacks.

Statistically the match should be a walk in the park for the All Blacks.   They should beat the Springboks easily - but is it going to happen?   I am not sure about that one at all.   I believe that based on statistics the All Blacks is likely to wiin - but I think it is not be a walk in the parl for them either.   If this test was played next year - a rebuild Springbok team will be much more settled and they would indeed be the better team. 

However, I am not sure whether the All Blacks will in fact win - and there are some very worried commentators around.   If they win p it would eb a very symbolic victory for them - but it may be to their detriment in the longer run, since it would harm the re-building of a rather old team - where younger players are very few and far between.   

Insofar as the team themselves is concerned - there can be no doubt that the All Blacks have a brilliant backline - by far the best in the world.   Aaron Smith is the youngest player in the backline - with the ommssion of Savea - the rest of them are in fact 29+ uears of age.   The replacements are not on the same level as the incumbents - bar SBW   

The problem is really with their forwards.   After all - the backline can only really fire when they get good balls.   The locks and the number 8 are the younger players in the team.   Reid is highly regarded world wide - but the forwards are in fact not performong as they should and that can be a problem for the team as a whole.  The key here will be McCaw, Reid and Messam.   If they can get the upper hand over the Springbok loosies - the battle will be won by the All Blacks.   However, despite all the breastbeating to the contrary McCaw blows hot and cold and is not the player he used to be.   In Dunedin Reid was the main penalty machine and Messam was nowhere to be seen.    A repeat of that would be fatal for the  All  Blacks hope of winning.

All in all the All Blacks would have to go all out to win - they cannot keep hoping for lack of finishing off by the inexperienced Springboks to help them to victory.   Despite my forecast to the contrary - based purely on patriotism and not logical assessment of the statistical records - the All Blacks should win the test.   If they lose it may be the signal that the era of the older players are ending and rebuilding of the team would commence on a faster and more realistic basis.

Deep inside me I really hope that the All Blacks keep the core of the present team in their squad for the next WC.   That would virtually assure a loss by them in 2015..   So I would not be too upset by an All Black viictory tomorrow,   However, I obviously hope that against all odds and statistical data - the Springboks does win.   


sasuke uchiha

Status: Rugby Legend
Posts: 5492
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 08:15:48

@clevermike,

in NZ circles, theres no such thing as a loss being detrimental to the All blacks cause, cos we play to win every match and while rebuilding for the future is important, in the words of qui gon jinn (master jedi played by liam neeson) u cant be mindful of the future at the expense of the present.

and the average age of the All Blacks is a lot higher then that of the Boks due to the obvious, but All Blacks have heaps of youngsters in their teams, in fact players 23 and under involved in this weeks game might come as a surprise, cos the All Blacks have,,,
brodie retallick - 21
sam whitelock - 23
aarons smith - 23
aaron cruden - 23

while the Boks have,,,
coenie oosthuizen - 23
eban ezebeth - 20
marcel coetzee - 21
johan goosen - 20
elton janties - 22
jaco taute - 21
patrick lambie - 21

 

of this lot only 3 of them fro each team are starting.
then there are the players who have been involved in the squads but are not playing like the All Blacks,,,,
julian savea -22
sam cane - 20

and the Boks
jj englebrecht -23

Boks only have 2 more players in their squad then the 23 and under, but the All Blacks 23 and under have accumulated 65 test caps, wnile the Boks 23 and under have only accumulated 38 test caps.
it would appear that the All Blacks are doing a much better job and bringing up youngsters into the team, not only that, the All Blacks did it based on form, while the Boks had some slections out of necessity.

 


clevermike

Status: Hall Of Fame
Posts: 10328
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 08:40:09

Sasu

I agree with you on a lot of issues - but the question here relates more to the quality of the youngsters coming into the team - not the numbers.   In any event Engelbrecht is not a quality player - so he is OUT.  I always maintain the same applies to Jantjies.

Aaron Smith is a very good scrummie.   I also rate Savea highly.   Whitelock and Retallick are at best average locks and Cruden - the jury is out on that one.  Cruden is blowing hot and cold - mostly cold - he is definitely not a Carter.

Eizebeth is top class and so is Coenie.   Taute and Goosen definitely has more potential and I think in time to come Goosen will be a much better flyhalf than Cruden. Marcell Coetzee is defnitely better than Cane - has proved that on test level alreaady.

You say that the Springboks were forced to select younger players - and that they therfore are not in the Springbok team on merit    That my good friend is real baloney.   


sasuke uchiha

Status: Rugby Legend
Posts: 5492
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 08:51:12

@clevermike,

not all the selctions were forced by the Boks, just some, like taute for an injured francois styen and janties for useless morne steyn (curse of the steyns??? o_O).
while it may be argued that francois wouldnt offer as much as taute, unless i hear from meyers mouth himself while strapped to a lie detector, i will never believe that taute would have started over francois and JDV in the midfield.

disagree on the whitelock and retalick arguments, but the jurys still out on the goosen vs cruden, but it does appear that way, but goosen is coming in for morne and crudens got carters shadow to always be compared to and like ive said a number of times, and empty packet of chips would look to be a better flyhalf when compared to morne, LMAO, :P


clevermike

Status: Hall Of Fame
Posts: 10328
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 09:47:06

Sasu

You may have noticed from my previous posts that I do not really rate Francois Steyn at all.   He has had the disadvantage of playing outside Moirne Steyn - but his record in France was not all that impressive.   We will see next year in Super 15 whether he in facr is worthy of future selection - I have my doubts on that one though.  Granted  Taute came in because of the injury to Francois Steyn - but I would still not call it an enforced selection - it was bound to happen sooner rather than later in any event - he is a class player in his own right and will prove that in future.

The one thing which is always guaranteed in SA Rugby is that they have a great talent to shoot themselves in the foot.   One of the greatest achievments in that regard is no doubt Morne Steyn as a flyhalf.   Probably one of the nicest guys that ever touched a rugby ball - but your above quote is an exact reflection of him as a flyhalf.   

Have a nice day and the best of Greylings to you.  LOL 

     


World Champs

Status: Baby Bok
Posts: 118
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 10:21:21

CleverMike - It is sincerely difficult to start making claims about players at such an early stage in their test careers. Thats a little be foolish and doesnt show much insight. One thing is for sure is that nothing is for sure. I for one see many young Bok players that have massive potential but to predicting things based upon the now is about as predicatble as asking if Robbie Deans will reach the next RWC?

 

The International rugby environment is such a challenging place to survive and I will say that it is going to be tougher for guys over 29/30 to stay to much longer in the game. However, if Brian Habana stays on for the next RWC would you say he is a geriatric or would that be ok in your eyes?

 

All paths do lead to an All Black win however reality points to a massive battle of attrition and frenetic pace but in the end it will come down to guile and being composed and shutting down the game when it needs to be done and that my friend is something that we definately do sincerely better than the SpringBoks and why we will win on the weekend. 

 

 


Beeno1

Status: Hall Of Fame
Posts: 8973
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 10:59:57

"The All Blacks are the world chaimps" - Mike could you please rephrase and make it the world chumps? Possibly a spelling error? hehehhehehehe

Yes there has been much chest beating - on both sides -  and righly so. Congrats to all for the good spirit in which you had a go. No guilt trips please!!

We do as fine honourable  sportsmen wish the abs good luck but the Boks better luck! Actually if ever a side deserved a break it is in fact the Boks. The Boks have left numerous points on the field this championship but hopeflly they will get their just reward this week end and not be fouled up by absurd kicking displays and Greyling like dementia.

Go the Mighty Bokke blow the abs away!!!


clevermike

Status: Hall Of Fame
Posts: 10328
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 11:01:40

World Champs

Come now - my friend - allow me the privilege of a bit of needling in this case.   I love to write some things - without really believing  it to be really the case = so as to illicit a response and than laugh at the outcome.

Yes - you are 100% correct - a person should in fact wait and see how players perform in the first ten tests before you can really make a true evaluation of their capacities.   Maybe there is just a bit of jealoisy in there = when it comes to my assessment of players.   However, I am following the careers of the younger All Blacks with as much interest as that of the new Springboks.   I have already looked at them on Super 15 level and was a bit disappointed in some cases.

Incidentally a year before McCaw was selected for the All Blacks team I said in a posting that he is really a magnificient player and you should have seen what the responnse of the All Black supporters were on that one.   It was really unbelievable what they said of the young McCaw at that time.  

However, something else.   They interviewed some of the All Blacks last night and Cane was amongst them.   He really seems to be the nicest of guys around - like what I saw of them in that regard.   They also spike to Carter - he was full of praise for Cape Town and it makes me wonder whether he would come to live there after retirement from rugby.   A lot of foreigners actually do that because of the exchancge rate     You can buy a palace there for $500 000 and live in absolute luxury on an income of $30 000 a month    Incidentally Campese is one of thse.

All I can say is have a nice evening and pleasant dreams about tomorrow's test and may Greylong features wondeful in your dreams.   LOL . 


World Champs

Status: Baby Bok
Posts: 118
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 11:15:21

Hehe guys thanks - trust me if the All Blacks lo lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lose geez that was hard to say - I will be the first Kiwi to stand up and say good on ya South Africa!!!

 

As I would hope my Bok brothers would do without any malice - heaps of chest beating does only add to the excitement thoughI am not looking forward to getting up at 3.30am in the morning bugger

 

Cheers World Champs and you know it!!!


Beeno1

Status: Hall Of Fame
Posts: 8973
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 11:29:44

World chump it may not have reached NZ yet but here we can record matches? No need for a 3 am viewing. How will you sleep after the game etc.


Papamoa

Status: Baby Bok
Posts: 280
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 11:49:06

 Good article, clever mike. But I can't help but feel and read about this springbok sudden jump in taking out number 1 starting this weekend. Started in the hiding of a very poor wallabies team.

Come on wallabies didn't have a chance with what happened to them last week and injurys  they have received even so they bet the Springboks in Perth. I can only hope that this weekend test will bring a crushing reality of the work that's still required to take on and bet the All Blacks. can't even begin to compare last weeks test with what's coming up this sat world of difference. Sure BOKs will always be a tough outfit to bet but this weekend might be a wake up call to the SA that there is a long way to go. 


Beeno1

Status: Hall Of Fame
Posts: 8973
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 05, 2012, 12:10:33

Warm welcome to the board Papmoa!!!

Look as encouraging as the Boks win was against Oz and some of the good rugby played that day the basis for optimism is more to do with the fact we were about 20 points better than the abs in Dunedin. I think everyone knows we really were the better side on the day. Now we are at home so its obvious who is more likely to win.

Nothing in sport is cast in stone but this is the only rational conclusion at this point in time.

 


clevermike

Status: Hall Of Fame
Posts: 10328
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 06, 2012, 11:07:01

Worlds Champs

I have ordicted a win by the Springboks by 10+ points - but that is not based on any statistics or factual information.   The latter all indicates a substantial win by the All Blacks - that is if they perfo4m at best.

If he outcome is a close win by the All Blacks I would in fact be delighted - it would show that we are in SA on the right road insofar as teambuilding for the future is concerned.

On the other hand if the Springboks beat the All Blacks it would indicatae for some changes to the All Black team - after all by all accounts they are a bit long in the teeth as the saying goes.   This apply mostly to the forwards ar ab average age of 3e.

I would indeed say that one of my theories as to the impact on age and performance in a conrtact sport like rugby is realistic.   I also believe that injuries to older players are mire frequent and it is more difficult to recover and take longe for them to recover.

Not that I predict injuries to players - I an fact hope there i none .  

In any event it will be very interesting to see what acrually happen today - and then continue a discussion on what we as rugby lovers have learnt from that and what pointers there are as to the future of rugby in the shorter, nediem amd longer term in New Zealand and SA..   


clevermike

Status: Hall Of Fame
Posts: 10328
RE: Rugby Scenario in Test on Saturday
October 06, 2012, 11:07:02

Worlds Champs

I have ordicted a win by the Springboks by 10+ points - but that is not based on any statistics or factual information.   The latter all indicates a substantial win by the All Blacks - that is if they perfo4m at best.

If he outcome is a close win by the All Blacks I would in fact be delighted - it would show that we are in SA on the right road insofar as teambuilding for the future is concerned.

On the other hand if the Springboks beat the All Blacks it would indicatae for some changes to the All Black team - after all by all accounts they are a bit long in the teeth as the saying goes.   This apply mostly to the forwards ar ab average age of 3e.

I would indeed say that one of my theories as to the impact on age and performance in a conrtact sport like rugby is realistic.   I also believe that injuries to older players are mire frequent and it is more difficult to recover and take longe for them to recover.

Not that I predict injuries to players - I an fact hope there i none .  

In any event it will be very interesting to see what acrually happen today - and then continue a discussion on what we as rugby lovers have learnt from that and what pointers there are as to the future of rugby in the shorter, nediem amd longer term in New Zealand and SA..   


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