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have to win with a bonus point or two, they'd be kidding themselves if they don't. Their main threat for the contentious sixth spot will come from the Reds who are playing the rudderless 'Tahs whom I expect will lose by a huge margin. The 'Canes are in with a chance but they too will have to win big, I expect  them to win in a close game which just about finishes their challenge for the year. Sorry Sitting Bull but I warned you not to get too cocky....you're on a rapidly melting cloud.

Denny

I think both the Crusaders and the Bulls will wiin their respective matches with bonus points.   That means they will be in positions 4 and 5 on the combined llog.   That means that the fight will be on for position 6 only.   My take on the games relating to the 6th position on the log is as follows:-

Chiefs vs Hurricanes

The outcome here could have an impact on the position of the Chiefs on the combined log.   I the Chiefs loses this one - they will be second on the log and not first as at present.   Even though they beat the Crusaders - I give the Hurricanes not more than a 20% chance of winiing this one.   I think the Chiefs will win by 10 points - but not get a bonus point.    That effectively would be that the Hurricanes would end up at number 8 on the combined log.   

Reds vs Waratahs

The Reds started off the competition poorly - maybe due to injuries - but their performnances have improved recently.   The Waratahs this year has blown hot and cold.   I doubt very much if the Waratahs can beat the Reds - would not give them a more than 10% chance of winning this one.   The Reds need a win and a bonus point as well even to be in contention - win with only 4 points would put them in contention for position 6 - a five -pointer for them is essential..    I think the Reds will win - but not get a 5-pointer - the Reds by 7 points.

Sharks vs Cheetahs

The Sharks will have an added advantage.    By the time this game will start - the Sharks will kinow exactly what will be required to be at number 6 on the log.   Even if the Hurricanes and the Reds win and get a 4 pointer in the process - the Sharks knows what would be required from them.   if the merely need a win - they would play for that only - since they would have to travel to Canberra to play the Waratahs in the play-offs.   They would also know whether they require a bonus point win to stay in contention.   The Cheetahs lost by a huge margin against the Bulls and then played well against the Stormers in a game where weather and playing conditions were the great equaliser.   They would not have that benefit against the Sharks - who beat the Bulls comprehensively last week.   The Sharks also have the benefit of the return of Lambie and Alberts from injury  and as a precaution they put Bismarck on the bench as well.    They could save him for the play-offs, but will bring him from the  bench if needed.   They are also hoping that Du Toit and Jordaan will be able to play from the bench.    I think that the Sharks will win and that a 5-pointer is on the cards.   Te Sharks by 12 points with a bonus point being forecasted.  

Based on my predictions - the overall log positions are likely to be as follows:-

1    The Chiefs

2    The Stormers  - if the Chiefs win without a bonus point and the Stormers manage to get one - positions 1 and 2 will change.

3    The Brumbies

4,    The Crusaders

5    The Bulls

6    The Sharks

That would result in an interesting play-off situation.   I give the Bulls no chance to win in Christchurch against the Crusaders - but I give the Sharks at full strength (despite the top coach of the Brumbies) an 80% chance of beating the Brumbies in Canberra.

 Of the lot, the Sharks have the best chance of ending with a 5 pointer, next will be the Reds - The Bulls may just win the match, who knows.

My prediction being, the final round ends with the Bulle realising that 5 points & 5th place will take em to Christchurch, while 4 points gives em the easier option of Canberra ............. victory to the Bulle, as they do their damnbest not to score four tries .

Bobbok there is another possibility. The bools could lose. How many matches have they lost recently. The Lions on the other hand have beaten the Sharks and the Rebels. There is an outside chance of an upset I guess.

Who would you say is the more desparate. If the Lions could beat the bulle and having beaten the Sharks they would have even more to say about being kicked out of super rugby.

I can see some very serious legal battles coming up if Lions are shafted. Best of all SARFU could be sued by putting in an under strenght queens franchise.

 Incompetent political medling and one blunder ontop of another!  SARU's top structure should all be fired for bringing the game into disrepute.  They serve only to discredit what others have built-up in years of dedicated hard work.

My prediction as to the game of the Chiefs-Hurricanes game was all down the drain - because of the non-warrior tribe play.   I was right in one aspect - they did not score four tries - but 3.   So now they are about to lose their top position on the log as well.

The Hurricanes remain in the picture insofar as play off games are concerned.   I still believe they would ultimmately not get that spot on the log - since the Reds and Bulls and Sharks can haul them in.   The Crusaders, Bulls, Reds and Sharks are now in a must-win situation insofar as the play-offs are concerned.   Another upset and the losing team will be gone from the play-offs.

Which team will most likely lose?